A Glimpse into Vietnam’s 2023 Exports: Q1∼Q3 Performance and Future Projections

In the initial three quarters of 2023, Vietnam’s exports encountered notable hurdles, largely stemming from sluggish expansion in both the US and EU markets, collectively representing around 40% of Vietnam’s goods exports. Nevertheless, a more in-depth examination of the data uncovers a more complex perspective.

According to the General Customs Department, Vietnam’s total export turnover in the first 9 month of 2023 was estimated at US$259.7 billion, signifying an 8.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2022. Particularly, the domestic sector recorded a turnover of US$68.9 billion, contributing 26.5% to the total export turnover. Meanwhile, foreign-invested companies’ exports reached US$190.8 billion, constituting 73.5% of the total export turnover.

Despite the challenges, there are positive signs. Quarter-over-quarter growth showed an encouraging trend, with Q2 witnessing an 8.1% increase compared to Q1, and Q3 achieving a growth rate of 10.3% compared to Q2. This suggests resilience and adaptability within Vietnam’s export sector.

Looking at major product groups, six categories with export turnover exceeding US$10 billion, such as computers, phones, machinery, textile and garment, footwear, and transportation vehicles, accounted for a substantial 62.2% of the total export turnover. Notably, high-value commodities such as transportation vehicles and cameras are among the few manufactured goods that maintained positive growth at 16.7% and 6.4% respectively. This shift towards more technologically advanced and value-added products is a testament to the country’s increasing expertise and competitiveness on the international stage.

Though most major markets experienced a downturn in the first three quarters of 2023, China stood as an exception, exhibiting 2.1% of growth as part of Vietnam’s exports. This growth was primarily driven by the substantial volume of agricultural products exported to China.

Source: General Customs Department

Looking ahead, there’s optimism for a robust finish in Vietnam’s exports in the final quarter of 2023. Anticipated factors include diminishing inflation in major economies, heightened year-end consumer demand, and the advantageous shift of production from China to Vietnam by multinational corporations. These dynamics suggest that Vietnam is well-poised to capitalize on emerging opportunities and continue its dynamic journey in the global trade landscape.