Vietnam’s Economic Growth In The First 3 Quarters Of 2023 And Forecast

As 2023 unfolds, Vietnam is charting its course through a challenging economic terrain marked by global uncertainties. The extended Russia-Ukraine conflict, in tandem with economic deceleration and financial concerns in the US and Europe, has presented formidable obstacles for economies worldwide. Nevertheless, Vietnam has displayed remarkable resilience, as reflected in its economic performance during the initial three quarters of 2023.

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s GDP growth in the initial nine months of 2023 was recorded at 4.24%, signaling a deceleration when compared to the same period in 2022. While this may raise concerns, a deeper examination of the quarterly statistics unveils an optimistic pattern. The GDP expanded by 3.28% in the first quarter, 4.05% in the second quarter, and 5.33% in the third quarter. This ascending trend implies that the economy is steadily building momentum.

One notable aspect of Vietnam’s economic performance in 2023 is the shift in growth drivers. The country’s export sector, which has historically been a crucial contributor to its GDP, faced headwinds due to economic slowdown in major export markets, including the US and the Europe. Despite these challenges, domestic demand and service activity emerged as strong pillars of growth. Notably, F&B and accommodation services (13.17%); Logistics and warehouse (8.66%); Wholesales and retails (8.06%) business lines displayed strong growth. This diversification in growth drivers reflects the adaptability and resilience of Vietnam’s economy.

In late September, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) adjusted its growth forecast for Vietnam. Initially predicting a growth rate of 6.5% in April, ADB reduced its forecast to 5.8%. While this adjustment reflects the impact of global economic uncertainties, it is important to note that Vietnam remains the fastest-growing country in Southeast Asia. The ability to sustain positive growth in a turbulent global environment underlines the resilience and potential of the Vietnamese economy.

Source: ADB